0 Romney assure tax free for Olympians

In a country riven by taxation discord, Republican White House hopeful Mitt Romney has hit on a populist measure that is a sure-fire winner: tax relief for US Olympians on the medals they win.

Some Republicans, including possible Romney running-mate Senator Marco Rubio, had already spoken out against the little-noticed element in the tax code that taxes athletes for bringing home gold, silver or bronze.

Yesterday a senior Romney adviser said the presumptive Republican nominee challenging President Barack Obama for the White House in November was also against the policy.

Romney headed the 2002 Winter Games in Salt Lake City, and "he believes that there should be no taxation of the type that you're describing," advisor Eric Fehrnstrom told reporters.

Romney is a multimillionaire former businessman and investor, and advocates significant tax cuts for individuals and corporations and simplification of the tax code.

The comments come a day after Rubio introduced the Olympic Tax Elimination Act in the Senate. Republicans and Democrats reportedly introduced similar legislation in the House.

"Our tax code is a complicated and burdensome mess that too often punishes success, and the tax imposed on Olympic medal winners is a classic example of this madness," said Rubio.

"Athletes representing our nation overseas in the Olympics shouldn't have to worry about an extra tax bill waiting for them back home."

The legislation follows a report by the conservative group Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), which warned that athletes could be required to pay up to US$9,000 in taxes to the Internal Revenue Service for each gold medal.

That's not just for the medal itself; the US Olympic Organising Committee awards US$25,000 to gold medal winners, US$15,000 for silver and US$10,000 for bronze.

Fact-checker group PolitiFact rated the ATR report as "mostly false," arguing that most athletes are not huge earners like swimmer Michael Phelps and would not be subject to high tax rates, and that they could also deduct their training expenses, which often amount to several thousand dollars per year, from their income.

US lawmakers are currently locked in a fierce tax debate.

Republicans, including Romney, want tax cuts from the era of former president George W Bush extended for another year for everyone, while Obama and Democrats want the tax breaks extended only for families making under US$250,000, meaning wealthier Americans would see their taxes rise in 2013.

Thanks:  http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Romney-promises-tax-relief-for-Olympians_12146136

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0 Romney blames Obama of 'vicious lies' on Bain Capital

Romney blames Obama of 'vicious lies' on Bain Capital

“So shame on you, Barack Obama!” cries out the voice in the latest TV ad from the Romney campaign, airing only in Ohio. Yet the voice belongs not to presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney, but to an unlikely figure to appear in any Romney commercial: Hillary Clinton.

The footage comes from the bitterly contested Democratic primary campaign of 2008, when then-Sen. Clinton – now President Obama’s loyal and steadfast secretary of state – complained about the Illinois insurgent spending “millions of dollars perpetuating falsehoods.”

“But that’s Barack Obama,” the ad’s narrator intones, before adding that the man who went on to win the presidency first attacked Clinton with “vicious lies.” 

The ad also cites a Washington Post column from last month that denounced a particular Obama attack ad against Romney as “misleading, unfair, and untrue.”

Tough stuff – and the latest attempt by the Romney campaign to demonstrate that it intends to meet head-on the barrage of attacks it has faced on the candidate’s private-equity career at Bain Capital. The Obama ad denounced in the Post column was one that had suggested Romney outsourced American jobs overseas during his 15-year career at the Boston-based financial firm.

Those Obama ads in turn relied on a Washington Post news article, published June 21, that reported that six companies that Bain invested in during Romney’s tenure at the firm were “pioneers” in the emerging trend of outsourcing U.S. jobs to foreign countries like India and China.

The Romney campaign collected statements from the six companies’ current and former CEOs, all of whom maintained that they had in fact added U.S. jobs during their respective periods of affiliation with Romney and Bain. They also said their reliance of foreign call centers and packaging plants was solely to support existing foreign sales of U.S. exports. After a meeting with the Post’s editorial board, in which the campaign demanded a retraction of the June 21 article, the paper announced it was standing by its reporting.

Then the independent group FactCheck.org weighed in on the Obama ads, declaring “we found no evidence to support the claim that Romney -- while he was still running Bain Capital -- shipped American jobs overseas."

An Obama-Biden campaign spokesman told Fox News that FactCheck.org “did get this one wrong.”  Interviewed at the campaign’s headquarters in Chicago, campaign press secretary Ben LaBolt discounted the testimony from the current and former CEOs, and instead urged a reporter inquiring about them to talk to the workers who lost their jobs when these businesses shut down U.S.-based plants.

LaBolt also sought to cast doubt on Romney’s longstanding career narrative, which holds that he left Bain Capital in February 1999 to run the Salt Lake City Olympics.

“What the Romney campaign and others have tried to do is to extract Mitt Romney from his tenure at Bain,” LaBolt said. “Some of these jobs were shipped overseas after 1999, but the fact is that Romney remained CEO and sole owner of Bain Capital through 2001.”

In support of that claim, Obama-Biden campaign aides uploaded state and federal disclosure forms that they said are “unambiguous” in showing that Romney continued to list Bain as his employer in 2001. A lengthy rebuttal sent to FactCheck.org by Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutter, cited dozens of forms from 2001 and 2002 that listed Romney as the sole owner of Bain or its various subsidiaries and funds.

Contacted by Fox News and asked about the documents, a source at Bain Capital insisted that Romney never returned to the firm or did any substantive work for it, or for its “portfolio companies,” after February 1999.  Some of the 2001 documents cited in Cutter’s letter clearly showed Romney listing his occupation with Bain as “former executive” and explaining his role in the firm and its offshoots as “passive…with no management capacity.”

Bill Burton, the former Obama White House aide who now runs Priorities USA, a liberal super PAC that is spending $10 million on ads attacking Romney for his tenure at Bain, claimed the effort is materially benefiting the president’s re-election prospects.

“They're clearly starting to work,” Burton told MSNBC on Monday. “If you look at any of the numbers out there, any public polling or focus groups, they're clearly working.  Our fundraising has picked up considerably, and the spending we are doing is having an impact.”

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/07/02/romney-accuses-obama-vicious-lies-on-bain-capital/#ixzz1zX0vN6yD

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0 Mitt Romney Outpacing Reagan at This position in the Presidential battle

Mitt Romney's strategists say history is on their side, at least in one sense.

They say Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, is ahead of where challenger Ronald Reagan was against President Jimmy Carter in June 1980, a campaign Reagan eventually won handily. That June, Carter had 39 percent support, Reagan 32, and independent John Anderson 21, according to the Gallup Poll. Reagan went on to defeat Carter in the November election, 51 to 41, with Anderson at 7.

A recent analysis by University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato buttresses the point.

"Remember that this [Reagan-Carter] race appeared close until the very end, with some polling even indicating that Carter might actually win just a few days before the election," Sabato says. "But Reagan proved his mettle in a late debate, and Carter's attempt to negotiate freedom for the American hostages in Iran failed. Those late developments helped turn a close election into a blowout."

All this adds to the optimism in the Romney camp. "We're very pleased" with the state of the campaign today, says a senior Romney adviser.

Many pundits and political professionals had expected Romney to emerge from the GOP primaries "bloodied, bruised, and battered," the aide told U.S. News, but instead Romney is in a strong posiition, statistically tied with President Obama in the polls. And this is happening before Romney begins "prosecution of our basic case against the president," the aide says.

Ken Walsh covers the White House and politics for U.S. News. He writes the daily blog, "Ken Walsh's Washington," on usnews.com, and is the author of "The Presidency" column for the U.S. News Weekly. He can be reached at kwalsh@usnews.com and on Facebook and Twitter

Thanks:usnews.com/news

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0 Obama increases Cash as Romney Endeavour Lift From Wisconsin

President Barack Obama pressed donors for contributions during his third visit to California in a month as Republican Mitt Romney looked to Wisconsin election results for signs his presidential bid is gaining ground.

Raising campaign cash at events yesterday in San Francisco and Los Angeles, Obama told supporters that he needs more time to right the economy, seeking to counter criticism from Romney on the election’s central issue that the president’s policies have failed to spur growth and lower unemployment.(Google)

“This is going to be a tough race precisely because the economy’s not where it needs to be yet,” Obama told donors in public remarks at the Julia Morgan Ballroom in San Francisco, the second of four fundraisers in California. “We’ve got to finish what we started.”

Obama dropped his recent rhetoric blaming the economy’s vulnerability on Europe. He also made no mention of Republican Governor Scott Walker surviving a June 5 recall election in Wisconsin -- a win that prompted Democratic and Republican strategists to reassess whether the state will be a battleground in the presidential race.

Romney, 65, who has clinched enough delegates for the Republican nomination, said yesterday the Wisconsin results may boost his chances nationally as well as in a Midwestern state that has voted Democratic in the past six presidential elections, albeit narrowly at times.
‘Conservative Principles’

“Yesterday was won by the people of Wisconsin doing the right thing and voting for conservative principles,” Romney said at a fundraiser in San Antonio, Texas. “I think people recognize we just can’t keep going down the same path that we’re on. It ends up in calamity.”

Until earlier this week, target states listed by Obama’s campaign didn’t include Wisconsin.

In a campaign video released on June 4 -- the day before the recall vote -- Obama campaign manager Jim Messina listed Wisconsin as “undecided,” along with Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Virginia.

If Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, were able to make Wisconsin competitive, it could make a major difference in the election. Winning a Midwest industrial state such as Wisconsin or Michigan, which both backed Obama in 2008, would provide him an easier path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Wisconsin Poll

Obama, 50, in the 2008 election beat Republican John McCain in Wisconsin 56 percent to 42 percent. An exit poll of recall election voters conducted June 5 showed Obama beating Romney 51 percent to 44 percent.

“I certainly wouldn’t read much into yesterday’s results,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said.

Obama’s Wisconsin win four years ago was boosted by a surge in support among younger voters, a demographic that remains more supportive of him than Romney and yet, polls show, is less energetic about his campaign than it was four years ago.

Romney said during a telephone town hall meeting with members of the National Federation of Independent Business that Wisconsin voters “said we’ve seen a conservative governor; he cut back on the scale of government and has held down taxes and stood up to the public sector unions and we want more of that, not less of it.” Romney added: “I think you’re going to find that in the decisions being made in November.”
California Swing

Obama’s latest California swing follows his May 10 dinner at the Los Angeles home of actor George Clooney, where he collected an estimated $15 million, and a May 23 visit with events at the home of philanthropists Lisa and Douglas Goldman of Atherton and at Redwood City’s Fox Theatre.

Yesterday’s fundraisers took in at least $4.6 million for the president’s re-election bid. The San Francisco events included a roundtable with tickets at $35,800 apiece for 25 guests, and a luncheon for 250 donors with tickets priced at $5,000, according to the campaign.

In Los Angeles, Obama attended a gay-rights gala at the Beverly Wilshire hotel featuring television personality Ellen DeGeneres, followed by a dinner at the home of Ryan Murphy, creator of the television series “Glee,” and Murphy’s fiancé David Miller. The gala was for 600 donors, with tickets starting at $1,250. Another 70 donors were invited to attend the dinner at Murphy’s home, with tickets at $25,000.

Obama’s campaign had raised $19 million in California, compared with $10.6 million raised by the Romney campaign, according to Federal Election Commission data released May 21 and compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington-based campaign research group.
‘Broader Fight’

During the California events, the president touted his signature initiatives, including the auto industry bailout, health-care overhaul and the repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” -- the ban on gay people serving openly in the military. Obama said his administration’s support for gays, including hospital visitation rights, is “just part of a broader fight on behalf of all Americans.”

“There were those who said we should let Detroit go bankrupt,” Obama said. He said because of his administration’s intervention in an auto industry bailout, General Motors Co. is “back on top.”

The president’s prospects for a second term suffered a blow with a U.S. Labor Department report on June 1 showing payrolls expanded by 69,000 jobs last month, fewer than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of private economists, while the unemployment rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent.
Blaming Europe

Obama called German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti from Air Force One during his flight to California from Washington to discuss the euro zone debt crisis. In yesterday’s public remarks, he refrained from the rhetoric he and former President Bill Clinton used in recent days: blaming Europe for threatening the U.S. economic recovery and suggesting that Romney and Republicans would take the U.S. down the same road as Europe.

At last night’s gala, Obama said Americans are “anxious” about the economy and “that anxiety can be tapped into.” He criticized Romney’s calls for tax cuts for the wealthy, less regulation and more spending reductions.

“I don’t think that’s how you grow an economy,” Obama said. “The other side’s not offering anything new.”

The president is to hold a fifth California fundraiser today, a breakfast at the home of real estate developer Charles Quarles, before heading to the University of Nevada in Las Vegas to talk about extending a freeze on student-loan interest rates.

Thanks:bloomberg.com/news/

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0 Obama performing politics with Iranian cyber-war: McCain

U.S. senator John McCain accused Barack Obama's administration of leaking the report of Obama's approval of cyber-attacks against Iran in a bid for pre-election glory.

The New York Times reported on Friday that cyber-attacks employing a malicious computer code developed with Israel were part of a U.S. plan against Iran code-named Olympic Games. The report added that the operation was approved during the rule of Obama's predecessor and was later accelerated by the current president.

AFP reports that McCain spoke to reporters in Singapore, where he was attending a conference on Asian security, saying: "Again we see these leaks to the media about ongoing operations, which is incredibly disturbing. Doesn't this give some benefit to our adversaries?"

McCain also pointed to previous leaks that revealed details of last year's U.S. raid that led to the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden.

McCain, who is the most senior Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said: "We know the leaks have to come from the administration. And so we're at the point where perhaps we need an investigation. So this is kind of a pattern in order to hype the national security credentials of the president, and every administration does it. But I think this administration has taken it to a new level."

McCain allowed that the president has the authority to carry out such operations but he said most presidents would discuss them with a "select few leaders of Congress."

McCain said the White House did not brief U.S. lawmakers about the cyber-attacks.

The New York Times report was based on interviews with current and former U.S., European and Israeli officials and was adapted from David Sanger's book, which will be published next week, titled: "Confront and Conceal: Obama's Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power."

The launch of Iran's first nuclear power plant at Bushehr was delayed in 2010 by the Stuxnet virus, and most recently, the Russian-based Kaspersky Lab discovered the virus "Flame", which reportedly has been wreaking havoc in Iranian computer systems.

Thanks:payvand.com/news/12/jun

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0 Barack Obama teases David Beckham for his underwear career

President Barack Obama teasingly described David Beckham as a "rare man" who could balance a long football career with producing his own line in underwear.

The former England captain his LA Galaxy team mates were lauded at the White House after winning the Major League Soccer Cup, America's equivalent of the Premiership.

Turning to the 37-year-old Beckham, Mr Obama described him as "young up-and-comer". To laughter from his team mates, the President said: "I have to say I gave David Beckham a hard time, and told him half the team could be his kids. We're getting old, David.''

But he conceded that the footballer was "holding up better than me" and said it was a " a rare man who can be that tough on the field and also have his own line of underwear".

Beckham grinned with embarrassment as the young squad aroung him burst into laughter.

Already a major star in the US, his profile was further lifted by a sultry Superbowl ad where he modeled tight underpants for H&M before an audience of more than 160 million Americans.

Mr Obama also singled out Robbie Keane, the former Tottenham striker who joined LA Galaxy last year.

The President, who often makes light of his tenuous Irish heritage, described the Ireland captain as "a cousin of mine".

"His teammates were so happy to have him that they filled his locker with what they called the 'pleasures of Ireland' - Guinness, Bailey’s, and Irish Spring. Hopefully Robbie has broadened their horizons a little bit since then," Mr Obama said before being presented with an LA Galaxy jersey.

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0 UK politics don’t have a digital clue

Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative are all failing in their use of digital media channels, with the Labour and Lib Dem website’s even infringing the Disability Discrimination guidelines.

UK advertising agency Cheetham Bell JWT (CBJWT) carried out a Digtal MOT report of the three parties ahead of the local elections which took place last week on Thursday. The report looks at the use of a number of digital channels including website effectiveness and accessibility, use of social media, and search engine activity. It is the same report CBJWT use to assess the performance of hundreds of household brands each year.

All three parties failed to achieve the pass mark criteria of 60 out of a possible 105.

Conservatives came the closest with 57, Lib Dems in second place with 54 and Labour trailed last with 51.
Most damaging findings

Some of the most damaging findings of the report included:

1. Poor Search Engine Optimisation (SEO)

None of three parties ranked in pages 1-4 of the Google Search Engine Result Pages (SERPs) for the term “local elections”, despite there being approximately 50,000 searches per month for that term. Other key search terms including immigration, NHS and foreign policy failed to find a single mention of the three parties. The parties are failing to connect wit these potential voters.

2. Poor or no consideration for mobile users

Last year, 45% of UK citizens accessed the internet from their mobile phone, according to findings by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Labour nor the Lib Dems even have a mobile website and the Conservatives mobile site is uninspiring and difficult to read.

3. Lazy and uninspiring use of social media

The combined total Facebook updates from the three parties in the month leading up to the local elections is only 68. The total number of tweets over the same period is a meagre 79. There is no attempt to really engage with their users.

The parties are simply replicating existing activity by posting updates about activities and news rather than using them to really interact with voters. It is difficult to establish which Twitter accounts are real, as there are three for each party and none of the Tories accounts are rated as official.

4. Failure to comply with Disability Discrimination Guidelines

Labour and the Liberal Democrats are failing to check that their website articles are using alt text that can be read by visually impaired voters. Some pages, like the one shown below, feature 12 accessibility errors.

CBJWT Chief Executive David Bell who commissioned the report said: “We were genuinely shocked at the lack of understanding and strategy this digital MOT has revealed among the major political parties. The rest of the world is embracing the digital age but politicians are clinging to the same old clumsy, environmentally unfriendly and scattergun electioneering approach – door drops, newspaper inserts, posters etc. With political party funding under scrutiny, politicians have to look to digital media as a much more cost effective and targeted way to reach voters, particularly the digitally savvy e-lectorate, who are far more likely to engage with a candidate on Facebook or Google them than to read a leaflet that comes through the door with a handful of pizza menus.”
Some positives

- Lib Dems are the clear leaders in blogging – with longer articles, regular updates and reader interaction. The Tories have a much less active blog roll, while Labour have yet to start a blog at all; another missed opportunity to connect with voters and drive SEO

- Labour’s website is easy to use and has a clear strategy and purpose with strong calls to action, good links to their social media and opportunities for data collection.

- The Tories are the clear leaders in video content, both on their website and on YouTube

The Digital MOT comes as a YouGov survey found support for the Conservative party had fallen to 29%, 11 points behind Labour on 40%, and the Conservatives’ lowest rating since 2004. CBJWT’s Digital Director Craig Johnson comments: “We’ve all seen how well digital media can work to reach the 21st century e-lectorate. Barack Obama recently held a White House briefing followed by a Google + broadcast where voters had to join his circle to join in and take part which generated over 1million followers.  Britain’s political parties need to stop using digital media to talk at us and embrace it as a chance to engage with us, as frightening as that might be. If fish and chip shops can do it, then so can the people who want to run this country.”

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0 John McCain tells Romney: 'I chose Sarah Palin as I trusted her'

US Republican Senator John McCain had some advice for Mitt Romney on Sunday: choose someone you trust for vice president.

Mr McCain, who lost the election four years ago to Obama, a Democrat, picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. His choice of the little known Alaska governor with limited experience on the national stage fired up the Republican Party's conservative base, but failed to stem a Democratic tide.

Mr McCain was asked on ABC television's "This Week" how he would advise former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney about picking a running mate.

"I think it's a person that he knows he could trust, and the primary – the absolute, most important aspect is, if something happened to him, would that person be well qualified to take that place?" Mr McCain said.

"I happen to believe that was the primary factor in my decision in 2008. And I know it will be Mitt's."

Palin, who was savaged by critics for being divisive and unprepared, resigned as Alaska governor after losing the election and went on to become a media personality and a fierce critic of the Obama administration.

One of the names mentioned as a possible Romney running mate is Cuban-American Marco Rubio, a 40 year-old senator from Florida who is a favourite of "Tea Party" conservatives.

Rubio, speaking on "Fox News Sunday," said the economy was worse off under Obama, and dismissed the president as a divisive Washington politician.

"All of the things that made him different and special four years ago are gone, and now, all he does is run dividing Americans against each other, obviously, because he can't run on his record," said Rubio.

But he dodged questions about a possible vice presidential run with Romney.

"I'm not going to talk about the vice presidential process," Rubio said. "But I can tell you that there are multiple ways that someone can help our nominee and I look forward to doing that."

Vice President Joe Biden joked that he might be interested in running in 2016 paired on a ticket with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

"I think we may run as a team," Biden told NBC's "Meet The Press" when asked to discuss his political future.

"I'm only joking obviously," Biden quickly added. "I don't know. I don't know whether I'm going to run and Hillary doesn't know whether she's going to run."

It was unclear from Biden's remarks which of the two political heavyweights would head the putative ticket.

Mrs Clinton, who ran a tight campaign against Obama in 2008 in a failed bid to win the Democratic nomination, has at least publicly ruled out any further White House bids.

But Biden said he was certain that he will be Obama's 2012 running mate, despite speculation the president would try to strengthen the ticket's appeal by choosing Mrs Clinton instead.

"There is no question about it. There's no way out. They've already printed Obama-Biden (campaign posters)" he said. "You are looking at the vice presidential candidate of the United States of America."

Source

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0 Conservative group puts millions into Obama energy attack

An independent conservative group launched its latest round of ads Thursday that are set to air in eight presidential battleground states backed by $6.1 million, according to the organization.

The president of Americans for Prosperity said the ad will begin running on Friday on cable and broadcast television stations for two weeks in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia.

The 60-second spot criticizes the Obama administration's energy policies and its failure to provide clean energy jobs in the United States.

"You cannot allow or it does not work when an administration is using our tax dollars in pursuit of an ideology, in this case global warming," AFP president Tim Phillips said during a press conference in Washington, D.C.

The White House has promoted what it calls an "all-of-the-above energy strategy" that will decrease American dependency on foreign oil, expand U.S.-based jobs and reduce emissions that it says contribute to climate change and pollution.

But Phillips said President Barack Obama's "almost obsessive focus on global warming" speaks to "this administration's focus on an ideology as opposed to genuinely trying to get this economy moving again."

"American tax payers are paying to send their own jobs to foreign countries," the narrator in the spot said. "Tell President Obama: American tax dollars should help American taxpayers."

Phillips said the ad buy would be accompanied by "hundreds of thousands of dollars" toward grass roots efforts in the targeted states, all of which are expected to be competitive in the next presidential election. AFP Spokesman Levi Russell said there will be two to three events in each state over the next few weeks, a mixture of rallies and town halls.

The Obama re-election campaign responded to the announcement, which it said was backed by "secretive oil billionaires."

"While the President fights everyday to build an economy where everybody gets a fair shot and does their fair share, special interests across the country are mobilizing to buy the election for Governor Romney to try to promote their interests over the interests of the American people," Obama National Press Secretary Ben LaBolt said in a statement.

AFP is a nonprofit group backed by conservative oil billionaires David and Charles Koch, among others, which has donated significant funds toward advertising and advocacy ahead of the November election. Nonprofits like AFP are able to accept unlimited corporate and individual contributions but are not required to disclose their donors.

Thursday's announcement marks the third round of ads from AFP in recent months. The two previous endeavors centered on the failed energy company Solyndra that went bankrupt after receiving government funding.

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0 'Fiscal cliff' makes US Fed queasy

Federal Reserve policymakers are sounding the alarm over a "fiscal cliff" at the end of this year, when scheduled US tax hikes and spending cuts could pose a big threat to the fragile economic recovery.

Along with its official mandate of watching unemployment and inflation, the US central bank is keeping a close eye on a potentially debilitating political fight over how to fix the budget deficit.(Aol)

If lawmakers in Washington do not get rid of the tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect in early 2013, the country could easily careen into another recession. Any moves by Congress, however, aren't expected until after the November 6 presidential election.

The Fed is worried that individuals and companies could hunker down and curb spending, making markets antsy as the country awaits the outcome of an election that could pave the way for new tax and spending policies.

Though few expect Washington to do nothing while fiscal policies push the economy into another downturn, partisan politics could undermine the Fed's unprecedented actions to revive the economy.

"I have been disappointed that the president and Congress are not taking action until after the election," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told reporters in Utah last week.(Bing)

"I'm also worried that markets will react badly to the fiscal cliff at the end of this year. Markets might start to speculate about what might or might not happen ... after the election," he said.

Asked what the Fed can do, however, Bullard seemed to dismiss the possibility of resorting to new bond buying to counter the effects of political gridlock over the budget deficit and economic policy.

"It's up to the Congress," he said.

Lawmakers pushed the United States close to a debt default in a bruising 2011 debate over raising the debt ceiling, roiling markets and costing the US its top credit rating from Standard & Poor's.(Yahoo)

This time, even more is at stake, and time is running out.

'Massive' cliff

The so-called Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2012 -- which means nearly all US taxpayers would have to pay more taxes unless the cuts are extended.

At the same time, $1.2 trillion in across-the-board reductions in federal programs would kick in as a result of Congress's failure last year to find a comprehensive deal to cut the budget deficit.(Google)

The US is expected to again hit its debt ceiling, or legal borrowing limit, by year end, which means Congress will need to agree to increase the ceiling or parts of government could ground to a halt.

On top of that, US President Barack Obama's payroll tax cut to 4.2% from 6.2% also expires December 31, and another patch is needed to prevent the alternative minimum tax (AMT) from affecting more middle-class families. The AMT was originally aimed at just the wealthy but now establishes a minimum tax rate for an increasing number of middle-class taxpayers.

The issues are likely to be dealt with in the "lame duck" Congressional session between Election Day and the new year, leading to a frenzied few weeks. But the uncertain backdrop of who will occupy the White House and Congress in 2013 has created even more worry.

"We're naive if we think that doesn't play into the Fed's thinking about monetary policy," said Tom Porcelli, chief US economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

"But the way that the Fed would want to present it is a minor consideration at best, because they don't want to be supplementing fiscal policy," Porcelli said.

Fed officials gathered for a policy meeting on Tuesday, and Chairman Ben Bernanke could use a Wednesday press conference to warn lawmakers just how dangerous the situation could be.

In February, Bernanke told Congress the US recovery could derail if lawmakers failed to address the "massive" fiscal cliff.

"I hope that Congress will look at that and figure out ways to achieve the same long-run fiscal improvement without having it all happen at one date," he said.

If the brewing crisis goes unaddressed, RBC Capital Markets forecasts, US GDP growth could be reduced by 3.8%age points at a time when the economy is expected to grow by little more than 2%.

Pleading for a plan

Fed policymakers have suggested the economy would have to deteriorate from forecasts and inflation remain low for the Fed to take more steps, including a third round of bond buying, or quantitative easing (QE3).

Since late 2008, the central bank has kept interest rates near zero and bought $2.3 trillion in securities to spur growth and support the recovery, which has been bogged down by frustratingly high unemployment and tepid growth.

Fed officials regularly plead for a credible fiscal plan from lawmakers that lowers US debt without sharp, short-term spending cuts and tax increases that would curtail investment and spending and undercut the recovery.

"One specific risk is that elevated uncertainty about prospective fiscal policy adjustments could weigh on the spending plans of households and businesses," Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen said this month.

US consumer sentiment remains fragile, slipping this month as Americans were less optimistic about the short-term outlook. Consumers and investors alike could become preoccupied with the fiscal uncertainty if it appears little will get done until after the election.

"Certainly if you listen to the Republican platform, this would be a very different set of policies, and people may be uncertain about that, and may indeed pull back on spending," said Avinash Persaud, chairman of London- and Mumbai-based investment bank Elara Capital.

Last August, uncertainty over the US debt ceiling sparked daily triple-digit swings in the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI>, which fell 7.2% over two weeks while investors sought safety in bonds.

Today, with rates so low and credit readily available, the effects of any additional Fed steps to head off such turmoil could be limited. And conservatives would likely criticize any Fed action as interfering in an election in which the economy is center stage.

Economists polled by Reuters this month put the odds of more Fed bond purchases at 30%. Illustrating the uncertain environment, 11 of 16 primary dealers polled by Reuters said the Fed will eventually embark on QE3.

"You set monetary policy based not just on the economy today, but on where you see the economy going for the next couple of years," said Roberto Perli, managing director of policy research at broker-dealer International Strategy and Investment Group in Washington. "Clearly that puts the fiscal cliff squarely in your sights."

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0 The Dangerous Joker in the Presidential Political Deck

If, as now seems clear, the nation is headed for a close, razor-thin presidential election, it is not (as most pundits say) jobs and the economy, or (as many pundits think but don't say) race or religion, that will decide the outcome.

Rather, the deciding factor is far likelier to be a little discussed internet operation called Americans Elect. That elegantly titled organization is the joker in the presidential election deck that could trump every other card and determine whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney is elected in November.

Americans Elect is a political reform movement funded by Peter Ackerman and others, and supported by some distinguished citizens like former New Jersey governor Christine Todd Whitman, television producer Mark Burnett, and former FBI Director William Webster, who sit on its advisory committee. The object of Americans Elect is to assemble a non-partisan ticket through a series of caucuses and national nominating convention on the internet. To "balance" the ticket, presidential candidates seeking Americans Elect's nomination must select a vice presidential candidate from the other party (or if an independent, tilting the other way). More than 2.5 million individuals have already qualified as delegates to vote in this nomination process.

The remarkable -- and unprecedented -- achievement of this movement is that it is laying claim to a voting line for president in just about every one of the 50 states. The group's larger objective is to collect enough votes in each state to maintain that powerful political positioning for congressional and other races in 2014, as well as quadrennial national elections in 2016.

Americans Elect is sparked by concerns that the two major political parties are so partisan and polarized that they have paralyzed the national government in Washington. It hopes to return control of the Congress and executive branch to a moderate middle ready to compromise. Americans Elect would rather be seen as middle-of-the-road mediator than a third party, but its impact this year will be like that of a third party.

We haven't seen anything quite like Americans Elect with a line in every state ballot. But we have seen third parties. The two most recent examples show the political mischief such parties can cause, however well meaning. Ross Perot ran on a Reform Party line in several states in 1996. Thanks to the conservative votes he garnered, Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush. Ralph Nader ran in 2000 and captured enough votes in Florida to snatch that state from Al Gore and put George W. Bush in the White House.

If the presidential candidate of Americans Elect is conservative, that will almost certainly gain Barack Obama a second term. If, on the other hand, its candidate is liberal, that will likely send Mitt Romney to the White House. The "balance" required for the vice presidential nominee will be lost on voters who focus on the top of the ticket.

The potential for malevolent mischief is enormous. In the no-holds-barred world of presidential politics, it is in the interest of Democrats to maneuver for a conservative or Republican to be Americans Elect's presidential candidate, while Republicans will want a liberal or Democrat to be the Americans Elect nominee.

Think about this: Ideologically driven high roller super PACs on the left would like to see a conservative like Ron Paul for the Americans Elect nomination, while right-wingers with deep pockets like the Koch brothers would prefer a liberal like Bernie Sanders in that position. (Americans Elect's web site lists both as possible nominees.) Moreover, hard-nosed Democratic campaign professionals may seek discreet (deniable) ways to discourage any liberal or Democrat who wins the internet nomination from accepting it; their Republican counterparts will pressure any winning conservative or Republican candidate to just say no.

The backers of Americans Elect are well-intentioned and concerned, as many of us are, with the dysfunction in Washington. Congress is gridlocked in perpetual campaign mode as control of the Senate and House are up for grabs every two years. Indeed, in an act of supreme political cowardice and individual self-interest, both parties have quietly agreed to put off the pressing budget and public debt issues, like raising taxes and trimming entitlements, until after the election -- and then to be handled in a lame duck session filled with members who did not run for reelection, lost their reelection bids, or won by camouflaging their true intentions during the campaign!

The frustration of the Americans Elect folks is understandable. But even the most well-intentioned initiatives can produce unintended, and in this case, dangerous consequences. Before we replace the two-party system with the dream of a mediating non-partisan middle, we should ponder the old Basuto proverb: "If a man does away with his traditional way of living and throws away his good customs, he had better first make certain he has something of value to replace them."

Two-party petty partisanship may not look like a tradition worth keeping or a good custom today, but does introducing a third party that is virtually certain to tip the election to one of the other two offer a better value for our nation?

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0 Conservative Groups Spending Heavily in Bid to Win a Senate Majority

The conservative groups that helped Republicans win the House in 2010 are pouring money this year into an aggressive campaign to capture the Senate, a goal that they consider just as vital as winning the White House.

Already, they have committed at least $17 million to television commercials in more than a dozen states from Florida to Hawaii, in most cases dwarfing what their Democratic opponents have spent. Their plans call for an effort that will exceed $100 million by Election Day, strategists for these groups said, far surpassing their efforts in 2010, a high-water mark for outside money in politics.

In the weeks ahead, they will pour more resources into states like Nebraska and Missouri, which have already seen some of the heaviest spending, in addition to intensifying their campaigns in New Mexico, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Their immediate objective: use hard-hitting television ads to tether Democratic candidates to the budget deficit, lackluster economic growth and the perception that government has become too intrusive and unmanageable.

Except for the candidate, and the phone number that flashes on screen at the end, the ads follow a strikingly similar script.

Senator Fill-in-the-Blank supports business-smothering regulations and will raise your taxes. He also added trillions to the deficit by voting for “Obamacare” and will cut your Medicare.

In Missouri, Senator Claire McCaskill, a Democrat, has been buffeted with more than $2.2 million in television ads from Crossroads GPS, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a group called the 60 Plus Association, which bills itself as a right-leaning AARP and uses Pat Boone as its pitch man. “Call Senator McCaskill,” Mr. Boone says in one ad. “Tell her unaccountable bureaucrats should never have the power to deny you the care you deserve.”

Ms. McCaskill and her allies have countered with ads of their own but are being outspent by more than 3 to 1, data from Kantar Media show.

In Nebraska, Bob Kerrey has been mocked as a liberal Manhattan interloper in a trio of TV commercials from Americans for Prosperity. In one, set to music that vaguely recalls Bernard Herrmann’s score from “Psycho,” a narrator warns, “Bob Kerry is moving back to Nebraska, and he wants to bring his liberal agenda back to our Nebraska home.” Stern-faced citizens object. “Not in my house,” says one man. “Not here,” says another.

Mr. Kerrey, a former Nebraska governor and senator who left office a dozen years ago to run the New School in Manhattan, has responded with nearly half a million dollars in commercials of his own. That is a considerable expense for his fledgling campaign, and almost as much as the amount of cash he had on hand at the end of March.

The conservative groups’ strategy makes clear that they — traditional Republican allies like the Chamber of Commerce along with newer players like the Karl Rove-backed Crossroads GPS and Americans for Prosperity, a Koch brothers-affiliated venture, among others — intend to be even more aggressive this year than they were in 2010, when they greatly expanded the role of outside money in Congressional elections.

By forcing their opponents to respond with expensive ad campaigns of their own, these conservative groups are achieving at least part of their goal. But their strategy is not without its risks, namely that they are dumping money into advertising long before voters are really paying attention.

The focus on the Senate reflects conservative hopes for a sweep of the White House and both branches of Congress, and frustration with the Senate’s role in blocking legislation passed by the Republican-controlled House, especially on the budget and fiscal issues that have come to dominate the debate in Washington.

“You could argue that what happens in the Senate and the House matters more on a day-to-day basis, on key legislative matters, than an administration does,” said Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity.

The Chamber of Commerce, which, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, spent more than $30 million on Congressional races in 2010, said it will commit “measurably more” this year to House and Senate campaigns in what officials called the most significant political effort in its 100-year history.

“We’re going to shape the environment now instead of waiting for the environment that comes to us later,” said Rob Engstrom, national political director for the Chamber of Commerce. For over a year, the group has enlisted strategists to comb through candidates’ voting records and public statements, looking for material useful in an ad.

“We’re prepared to quickly engage if developments warrant,” he added.

Crossroads plans to spend about $60 million on Senate races alone and an additional $30 million on House races. That would more than double what it and its sister organization, American Crossroads, spent in 2010. These sums will come atop the nearly $18 million in air time that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has reserved for the fall.

Americans for Prosperity, which has been an important supporter of the Tea Party movement, and others promoting various aspects of the conservative agenda, like Club for Growth, a group that promotes fiscally conservative and free-market principles, have each vowed to spend millions more.

Democrats acknowledge that they are outgunned, but expect the Republicans’ financing advantage to dissipate as the general election nears. Money being spent on ads now, Democratic strategists argue, is being wasted on voters who are not paying close attention to their local races. And it will leave less money for Republicans and their allied groups come the fall, they contend.

“Even Karl Rove’s money becomes finite at some point,” said Matt Canter, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, who added that Democratic incumbents had plenty of cash on hand that would go further because candidates, unlike outside groups, get the lowest possible advertising rates. “We will not be outspent in practice as much as it might appear.”

In addition to lacking the large donors who have provided much of the money for outside conservative groups, Democrats find themselves at a further disadvantage because President Obama’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee do not plan to finance the Congressional campaign committees this year.

Democrats are trying to turn their underdog status into a political benefit by using it to raise money and portray their Republican opponents as beholden to their big contributors. Indeed, Ms. McCaskill features the attack ads being run against her in an ad of her own that rails against the “special interests” behind the commercials.

“What they’re doing to Claire McCaskill is nothing compared to what their special interest agenda will do to you,” the narrator says, going down a list that includes tax breaks for the wealthy, “ending Medicare as we know it,” and trade policies that benefit China over the United States. “Claire says, ‘Make it in Missouri,’ ” the announcer adds, pronouncing it the way many locals do: Muh-zhur-UH.

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