Monday 2 July 2012

0 Can Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz?

The last time Iran tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, the trade artery linking the oil-rich Gulf states to the outside world, the Revolutionary Guards had only a few rubber dinghies and primitive mines to achieve their goals. Next time, they will be far better prepared.

For the ayatollahs, the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and the tiny sheikdoms of the Gulf, has become a national obsession in their long-standing confrontation with the West. They know that, for all their long-held nuclear ambitions, they will never be able to match America’s military supremacy. Even if they were to develop the know-how to fit a nuclear warhead to a ballistic missile, the odds are that the weapon would be shot down the moment it left its launch pad by one of the hundreds of anti-missile batteries the US has deployed around the Gulf region in anticipation of just such an eventuality.

Can Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz?

So far as the ayatollahs are concerned, a far more effective way of attacking the West would be to place a stranglehold on their economies. As General Sir David Richards, the head of Britain’s Armed Forces, commented at the end of last year, that the biggest threat facing Britain is the parlous state of its economy. And the economies of Britain and the other major developed powers would be thrown into chaos if the Iranians carried out their threat to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The free and uninterrupted passage of trade through this narrow passage of water is comparable to the importance of the English Channel in sustaining the prosperity of Europe, a status that is enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. On average, 14 crude oil tankers pass through the Strait each day carrying an estimated 17 million barrels, more than a third of the world’s seaborne oil shipments. In addition, it has become a vital conduit for tankers carrying liquefied natural gas from states such as Qatar, as the Western economies become ever more dependent on gas for their energy needs.

 At a time when tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme are reaching crisis point, it was almost inevitable that Tehran should start making ominous noises about closing the Strait if the US and its European allies follow through on their threat to impose wide-ranging sanctions on Iran’s oil industry.

Oil revenues make up around 80 per cent of Iran’s foreign currency earnings. The rial, Iran’s currency, fell 12 per cent this week after it emerged that all 27 members of the European Union had agreed to implement a complete ban on oil shipments from Iran. Overall, the rial has fallen 40 per cent in value in the past month.

The prospect of increased sanctions has prompted senior Iranian political and military figures to warn that the strait could be closed in retaliation. This week, General Ataollah Salehi, the commander-in-chief of Iran’s armed forces, threatened to attack the US Navy if it attempted to move an aircraft carrier into the Gulf.

To many, this is nothing more than the Iranians indulging in yet another tiresome exercise in anti-Western sabre-rattling. With parliamentary elections due in March, the regime is keen to demonstrate its refusal to be intimidated over its nuclear programme. But in view of the Iranian government’s inherent instability, it would be prudent for the West to be on its guard against any attempt by Tehran to disrupt such a strategically important linchpin for global trade.

The Iranians’ military capabilities have come a long way since the mid-1980s, the last time they made any serious attempt to disrupt Gulf shipping. On that occasion, angered by America’s deepening support for Saddam Hussein during the long-running Iran-Iraq war, the Iranians launched random attacks against the shipping of pro-American Gulf states such as Kuwait, forcing the US Navy to intervene on their behalf.

Although the Iranians were no match for the US Fifth Fleet, which operates from Bahrain, they caused enormous disruption – and a sharp increase in international oil prices – by the simple expedient of dropping mines in the main shipping lanes, while the Revolutionary Guards attacked unprotected tankers from their rubber dinghies. Ultimately, the Iranian attempt to close the strait was foiled by Washington’s superior firepower.

 But the ayatollahs vowed that, if ever the need rose again to blockade the Gulf, they would have the means to do so. Consequently the Iranian military has spent much of the past two decades overhauling its capabilities, to the extent that if the order were given to close the Strait of Hormuz it could actually carry out the threat – albeit for a few days.

Iran would be able to deploy anti-ship cruise missiles, submarines, mines and thousands of small watercraft that could be used in “swarm” attacks against shipping if the ayatollahs decided to impose a blockade.

Such is the confidence of senior Iranian commanders in their firepower that Admiral Habibollah Sayari, the head of Iran’s navy, recently boasted that closing the strait would be “as easy as drinking a glass of water”. And to prove the point, this week his forces completed 10 days of war games in which they successfully tested three anti-ship missiles.

But if the Iranian military threat is much more potent than it was in the 1980s, the Pentagon insists that it still would be no match for US firepower. One aircraft carrier is able to deploy more air power than the entire Iranian air force, and it is difficult to argue with the assessment of most military analysts that it would take just a few days to knock out the entire Iranian military effort.

Nor would the American response be confined to the Iranian navy, as any attempt by Iran to use military force to disrupt Gulf shipping would inevitably lead to America and its allies using it as an excuse to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, thereby resolving the nuclear crisis once and for all.

Iran would, therefore, be taking an enormous gamble if it attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is why politicians on both sides of the Atlantic dismiss Tehran’s sabre-rattling as a futile gesture aimed at persuading the West not to impose further sanctions. Nevertheless, Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary, made plain in Washington yesterday that any attempt to block the strait would be illegal and could be countered with military force. But in a country where normal rational assessments do not apply, there remains the distinct possibility that, having acquired the means to close the strait, the ayatollahs will go ahead with their threat.

Any hint of military confrontation could see oil prices soar by 50 per cent within the space of a few days, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the world’s leading developed economies. Iran, meanwhile, would react to any attack on its nuclear facilities by carrying out its long-standing promise to attack Israel, as well as mobilising the scores of sleeper terrorist cells it has stationed throughout the Arab world.

It would not be long before a confrontation that began as a dispute over access to shipping lanes escalated into a major regional conflict.


Thanks:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8995261/Can-Iran-close-down-the-Strait-of-Hormuz.html

0 comments:

Post a Comment